Shopify는 사람들이 온라인으로 상품 거래하는 온라인 e커머스 플랫폼 회사이다.
Shopify is kind of like an online e-commerce platform where people can go and build websites and sell products online
So kind of like Amazon in a sense that they sell products online.
온라인으로 상품을 판다는 면에서 아마존과 비슷.
과거 실적
In 2016, they were producing $389M in revenue, in 2017 they did $673M, in 2018 they did just over $1B in sales and then in 2019 they reported $1.58B in revenue = a growth company
2016년 0.38조, 2017년 0.67조, 2018년 1.07조, 2019년 1.58조 매출 보임 = 지난 4년 추세로는 성장하는 회사임에 틀림없다
From 2018 to 2019 they increased the revenue by 47% YOY
매출액 성장속도를 봐라. 2018년 대비 2019년은 47% 성장했다
One thing I want to point out that I've already noticed is Shopify's actual earnings are negative. So this company is not yet generating a profit
또 하나 눈에 띄는 것은 회사는 아직 수익을 내지 못하고 있다
And we can see that in 2016 their earnings were -$35.36M, and in 2019 their earnings were -$124.84M, so as the revenue for this business is increasing the losses for the business are also increasing.
매년 손실의 폭도도 커지고 있어서 이상적인 투자처는 아니다
Consolidate balance sheet
대차대조표
Cash and cash equivalent of just under $650M,
현금 및 현금성 자산은 0.6조,
marketable securities of $1.8B,
매출 채권 1.8조,
trade and other receivables was $90.5M,
외상매출 0.9조,
merchant cash advances and loans receivables was a $150M, and
선급금 등 0.15조,
other current assets was $48.8M. This leaves Shopify's total current assts at $2,7B
기타까지 총 2.744조 유동자산 있다
Shopify's current liabilities are $316.3M
유동부채는 3,163억으로
Total current assets of $2.7B/ Total current liabilities of $316.3M = 8.67
유동자산/유동부채 = 유동비율 계산하면 8.67이 나온다
You know that a current ratio above 2 is seen as a financially healthy company, so having a current ratio of 8.67 is absolutely phenomenal. This company is at no risk of going bankrupt any time soon or anything of that matter.
유동비율 2만 넘어도 재무가 건강하다는것을 여러분은 안다. 8.67이면 경이로운 것이고 파산 가능성 거의 희박하다
Add up long-term liabilities $157.3M = Total liabilities of this company currently $473.7M
장기부채는 1,573억, 돌아가서 유동부채와 장기부채를 더하면 총부채가 4,737억이 나온다
Shopify has $2.7B in current assets so Shopify could essentially pay off all of their liabilities and become a debt-free company and still have about $2.3B left in current assets. So this is a very very strong balance sheet and the ratios here look absolutely phenomenal.
만약 2.7조의 유동자산만 청산해도 모든 빚 다 갚고 2.3조 가량 남는다. 이 회사는 재무가 완전히 튼튼하다. 비율들이 미쳤다!
Shopify's cash position increased to $649.9M from $410M in 2018, so Shopify increased their cash position by over 50% YOY, which is also very good.
또 Shopify의 현금성 자산은 2019년 말 6,499억으로 2018년말 4,106억이니 증가폭이 50%(전년대비)이나 되는 것이니 좋다
부채의 증가
Liabilities increasing
We can see that in 2018 they had current liabilities of $138.6M that more than doubled to $316.3M in 2019.
1,386억에서 3,163억으로 약 두배
Now if Shopify didn't have such a strong cash position then this would concern me, but since the company has so many assets I don't see this dramatic increase and liabilities as a bad thing, because this increase in liabilities is not putting the company in any financial trouble whatsoever.
Shopify가 현금 자산이 적었다면 걱정했을 것이나 그렇지 않고, 자산도 많고 부채 증가를 나쁜 신호로 안 본다
Cash flow statement
현금흐름표
They reported a net loss of a $124.8M in 2019. This loss just about doubled from 2018 when they reported a loss of $64.5M
영업활동으로 인한 순현금손실 규모 1,248억이 바로 보인다. 규모가 2018년 645억에 비해 두배가 되었다
So Shopify's YOY loss is increasing as their revenue increases
Shopify의 현금손실폭도 늘고 있다, 전년대비 매출이 증가하면서
How did Shopify's cash position increase if they reported a loss on the year
Shopify가 올해 현금흐름이 순손실로 나타나는데 어떻게 현금이 늘었을 수가 있을까?
Net cash provided by operating activities
영업활동으로 인한 순현금흐름
Shopify produced $70.6M from operations, so this is how much money the operations of the business actually bring in after they pay all of the expenses and everything
706억 증가. 이건 비용 제한후 영업 현금 흐름이다
Cash flows from investing activities
투자활동으로 인한 순현금흐름
Shopify spent $2.7B on the purchase of marketable securities and this is pretty much like investments into the stock market.
유가증권 획득에 2.718조나 사용했다. 주식시장 투자같은것이라고 보면된다
And we can see that they had $2.47B in the maturity of their marketable securities, so Shopify is investing a lot of their money back into other investments.
유가증권 기 투자 만기액도 2.477조 규모나 된다. 즉, 유가증권에서 타 유가증권으로 투자계속 이어나가고 있다
And I actually find this interesting because they are not using this money to acquire other companies or invest back into property or things that are going to continue growing in the company.
이부분은 짚고 넘어간다. 왜냐면 다른 회사를 인수하거나 사업에 계속 재투자해서 계속 성장하려는 목적으로 쓴 돈이 아니니까.
It is the main thing I want to point out. This is the proceeds from public offering, and we can see that Shopify has produced $688M from public offerings. This is also known as a dilution.
핵심은 이거다. 기업공개 진행 (발행비용 제외)에서 나온 6,880억. 쉽게 말하면 희석효과라고도 알려져있다
So I just did a quick Google search and just found out Shopify diluted 1.9M shares at $317.5 per share. And if we go back to their financial statement, this $688M in proceeds is where that money came from.
190만 주식 물량이 주당 317.50에 희석되었다. 돌아가보면, 6,880억의 돈이 여기서 온거다.
So when the company does a public offering, it is literally raising money from the public stock market. They essentially just create new shares to just sell to the public and they get proceeds from selling their shares.
기업공개를 하면 본질은, 주식시장에서 돈을 끌어오는거다. 신규 주식발행으로 팔리는 자금을 모두를 가지고 온다
If we go back to Yahoo Finance, we can see that for 4 years this company has not produced positive earnings. This tells me that for the past 4 years Shopify has been diluting their shareholders to continue funding their actual business.
지난 4년간 적자였던걸 야후 파이낸스 실적에서 볼수있다. 계속 주식 희석시켜서 자금조달해 운영해왔다고 봐도 무방하다
Investors typically don’t like being diluted on.
희석당하는 것을 투자자들은 좋아하지 않는다
In 2018 year, we can see that they raised over a billion dollars from public offerings
2018년을 보면 1.041조나 기업공개 항목에서 생겨났다
Net cash provided by operating activities: $70.6M
영업활동 현금흐름: 706억
Minus net amount of money Shopify spent on investing activities $569.4M
-투자활동 현금흐름: -5,694억
And we are left with -$498M
= -4,988억
So this means that if Shopify did not do this public offering then the company would lost almost $500M in 2019
의미는, Shopify가 기업공개 자금 없었더라면 -4,988억의 현금손실이 2019년에 있었을 것이다
But since they did this public offering of $688M the company actually increased their cash position from 2018
하지만 기업공개를 6,880억대로 했기 때문에 총 현금이 오히려 증가한게 가능했던것이다. 2018년때 보다
But this only happened because they came back and did public offering and diluted their shareholders.
단지 기업공개에서 (기존)주주들을 희석 시켜서 해낸 것이다
All of this just means that Shopify is a great example of what Benjamin Graham calls O.P.M company (other people's money)
지금까지 모든것이 벤자민 그레이엄이 명명한 O.P.M 회사의 좋은 예시다(“다른 사람 돈”)
Because this company is quite literally running on other people’s money
말 그대로 다른 사람 돈으로 운영되고 있는 회사다
2020 revenue guidance
2020년 실적 전망치
Annual forecast called for adjusted operating loss of 0 to $20M and revenue of $2.13B to $2.16B
연 전망치는 조정된 영업손실이 0에서 200억 범위. 매출은 2.13-2.16조 사이로 추산
So if we go and compare this $2.1B in revenue and -$20M in losses, versus their 2019 year of $1.98B in revenue and $124M in losses, it tells me that Shopify was expected to continue increasing their revenue and increase the company’s margins to get them closer to profitability.
2020(e) 2.13-2.16조 매출과 -200억 영업손실을
2019(a) 1.58조 매출, -1,248억 영업손실에 비교하면 회사가 매출 성장을 계속하고 마진이 좋아질것으로 기대되어 드디어 수익구간에 가까워지지 않을까 싶다
Shopify’s market capitalisation of $74.6B divide by Shopify’s previous 2020 guidance, which was that $2.13B = 35.03
Shopify 시총 74.615조에 2020(e) 가이던스 매출액 2.13조를 나누면 35.03이 나온다
So what this tells me is that Shopify’s current market capitalisation is 35 times what the company was actually going to generate in revenue for 2020
현 시가총액은 35배라는 뜻이고 (이익의 35배도 아니고, 매출의 35배)
So let’s just hop into some theoreticals here, let’s go back to the $2.13B in revenue that Ahopify was going to produce in 2020. And let’s just say that Shopify did very very well and produced 30% margin, which is in the line of what Apple produces.
이론적인 이야기를 해보자 2020년 예상 매출액 2.13조에 진짜 조미료 보태서 마진을 30%라고 해보자 (~애플의 이익률)
So this is like the best case scenario ever. So let’s times their total 2020 revenue by a 30% margin.
This tells me Shopify would be earning $639M in profits.
역대급 베스트 시나리오 가정인데, 이대로라면 6,390억의 연 영업이익이다
Shopify’s market capitalisation: $74.6B divide it by this theoretical $639M in earnings. What this tells me is that even if Shopify can produce 30% margin on their 2020 revenue guidance, the company would still be trading at Price to Earnings Ratio at 116.
시총 74조에서 6,390억응 나누면 PER가 116배가 나온다 (이건 애플만큼 잘한다고 하더라도 이정도니 말다했다)
PER of 20 is kind of seen as the fair value for business. Now PER does change from sector to sector, and the online Internet sector does tend to trade at a higher PER. But regardless, 116 is too high.
PER는 일반적으로 20안팍으로 보는게 공정하고, 산업섹터마다 편차가 있지만 인터넷 높음을 감안해도 116은 너무 높다
What this means is that if Shopify were producing a 30% profit margin on a business, and you were looking to acquire a whole business with $74.6B. Then it would take you 116 years to get a return on your investments since the company is only generating. $639M in earnings and you paid $70B for the company.
이 말 뜻은, Shopify가 (애플만큼) 30% 마진 내준다는 가정하에 현 시총만큼 투자하면 원금회수하는데 116년 걸린다는 뜻이다
15/09/2020
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